8.6 years business cycle

Recently, I read about the “Economic Confidence Model” theory coined by Martin A. Armstrong, which, in summary, predicts economic waves every 8.6 years, or 3141 days (1,000 * Pi).


We can check the past performance of this theory by just checking the S&P500 for the last 20 years in a monthly chart:

2017-09-18 16_06_15-SPY - Charts - 861012525 Main@thinkorswim [build 1908.18]

  • 2002.85 bottom: OK
  • 2007.15 peak: OK
  • 2011.45 bottom: KO
  • 2015.75 peak: OK
  • 2016.825 bottom: KO (?)
  • 2017.9 peak: ?? The schedule is for November 24-25 2017

From 5 predictions, 3 right, 1 wrong and 1 open for discussion. So we could say that out of 4 predictions 3 were right and 1 wrong, giving a 75% accuracy to this model.

Shall this mark the end of the rally at the end of November 2017? We’ll see…


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